Record NFL volume, Supreme Court risk and celebrity ads: prediction markets with Daniel O'Boyle

Week one of the NFL season produced record trading on prediction markets, and InGame's Daniel O'Boyle has no doubt the legal fight over them will reach the Supreme Court. He joins host Eric Raskin on the Low Rollers podcast to explain the numbers, the pricing against sportsbooks and the backlash to celebrity ads.

In this episode

• Kalshi's college football Saturday set a volume record of about $2.4 billion and NFL Sunday only barely topped it; O'Boyle had expected $2.5 billion and thinks the record will fall again this year (7:01, 7:56, 8:17).

• Parlays were about 60% of volume last weekend; volume counts both sides, so a $1 parlay at 100 to one counts as $101 (11:58, 12:09, 12:21).

• A Wall Street analyst note found Kalshi's parlay pricing not quite as good as FanDuel and DraftKings, though not far off, while prediction markets are usually better priced on game winners and spreads (13:00, 14:07).

• He says there is "no doubt" the case reaches the Supreme Court and expects it to take it up in 2027 (16:05, 17:37).

• A ruling for the states would be "a huge blow" but not a death knell: roughly $200 million of a $2.5 billion day is non-sports (21:13, 22:02).

• He calls 15-minute crypto markets closer to a casino game than a financial contract (23:43).

Episode from Low Rollers by Casino Reports, published on YouTube.