From DFS to prediction markets: finding new edges, with Justin Herzig of PredictQ

Business of Betting host Jeff Edelstein talks to Justin Herzig, founder and CEO of PredictQ, who has moved from Yahoo leagues and hand-built DFS lineups through Best Ball to prediction markets. Herzig says that is now where the marketing dollars are, and explains what retail traders need there and what PredictQ is building for them.

In this episode

• Herzig says 70% of retail traders lose money on the big prediction-market sites, and PredictQ is building content, tools and community for them (5:59).

• His user interviews put confusion first: price ladders, making versus taking, order books and liquidity are harder than logging into a sportsbook (12:51).

• In thin markets he still finds edges: a player he modelled at 16% to finish first at his position was offered at 30 cents, so he posts "no" liquidity himself (9:36).

• In week one of the NFL season he made 110 "no" trades on fantasy finishing-position markets and won 109, for a profit of "around like 19%" (37:30).

• After talking to his investors, he leans towards "30 to 35%" odds that the Supreme Court classes sports contracts as gaming, with the case maybe a year and a half to two years from being heard (20:36).

• PredictQ currently shows the best price and deep-links to other venues as an affiliate; trading on its own site is planned (24:48).

Episode from the Business of Betting Podcast with Jeff Edelstein, published on YouTube.