Prediction markets and institutional money, with Steven Dresner of DealFlow Events

Prediction markets are mainstream enough to be "above the fold page one" of the New York Times, says Steven Dresner, founder of DealFlow Events and host of the Predict 2026 conference in New York. He talks to host Jeff Edelstein (senior analyst at InGame) about regulation, where the money will be made and how his events business sees the topic.

In this episode

• Dresner calls the regulatory risk hanging over the market probably the worst kind: "potentially catastrophic" and "completely uncontrollable" (5:26).

• He says the real excitement is on the institutional side, with contracts created for derivatives and hedging (6:16).

• Today's market is a lot about sports, and Predict will cover a lot of it "because that's the business", but he expects hedging products for banks and insurers to "dwarf the sports betting business" within five years (17:54, 27:38).

• He hopes for restrictions on markets where a single person could affect an outcome with significant financial consequences (12:35).

• The big money, he says, will be made at the exchange level; as a self-described "pick and shovel provider", he also sees back-end opportunities in geolocation and payment processing (21:48).

• He expects specialised exchanges for sophisticated institutions to take the big money, with one or a few generalist consumer venues alongside (23:05).

Episode from the Business of Betting Podcast with Jeff Edelstein, published on YouTube.