Why betting exchanges beat sportsbooks on price, with Chris Dierkes of Novig

Novig's head of trading argues that betting exchanges beat sportsbooks on price, and that price is what bettors should care about. In this Business of Betting interview, Chris Dierkes tells host Jeff Edelstein, senior analyst at InGame, how his team keeps an exchange liquid and how Novig plans to compete with Kalshi and Polymarket.

In this episode

• Dierkes says Novig is an exchange, not a sportsbook; his number one job is making sure every market has liquidity, including niche ones such as player props and alternate lines (1:05, 1:45, 2:34).

• He says exchanges almost always have the best price, and that sportsbooks typically charge an extra 5 to 10% on cash outs, so he advises making an additional bet instead of cashing out (13:22, 16:18, 17:12).

• He expects exchanges to end up like sportsbooks today, with one, two or three real exchanges at the top (18:32).

• Novig's edge over Kalshi and Polymarket is no fees and an easier app, but he admits the no-fee edge may not matter unless the public learns that price matters (18:41, 19:06).

• On sizing, he follows the Kelly criterion and explains his $1 million bet on Anthony Joshua against Jake Paul: he conservatively made Joshua 95% to win and could buy him at about 85% (22:20, 22:40, 25:39).

• Asked to price the Supreme Court letting prediction markets carry on, he says 75 cents (36:25).

Episode from the Business of Betting Podcast with Jeff Edelstein, published on YouTube.