The future of prediction markets, with Public co-CEO Leif Abraham

Brokerages are starting to treat prediction markets as one more asset class. Public.com has launched event trading, powered by Kalshi, along with AI agents that can trade on a member's behalf. On The Event Horizon, host Dustin Gouker interviews Public co-founder Leif Abraham, after a news segment with Daniel O'Boyle of InGame.

In this episode

• Abraham says Public wants to be "truly multiasset", with event contracts joining stocks, crypto, bonds and options (33:34, 33:43).

• Prediction-market data can also serve as a signal for other trades, so users need not trade the market itself (35:05, 35:10).

• Public's agents run as deterministic workflows that members approve, which Abraham says means they cannot hallucinate trades (42:23, 42:41).

• Sports contracts are left out on purpose; he says betting should not be connected to a platform where people hold their life savings, and Public designs for the top quartile of US earners (45:29, 48:15).

• He is unsure hedging will be mainstream, and expects most users to trade company KPIs, such as Tesla Model Y delivery numbers (52:13, 54:09).

• He believes non-sports markets will become "way bigger" than sports (55:03).

Episode from The Event Horizon Podcast by Dustin Gouker, published on YouTube.