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What prediction market volume data really shows, with TickerTracker's Eric Ramsey
Eric Ramsey of TickerTracker unpacks trading-volume numbers at Kalshi, Polymarket and others as football season drives activity, plus the latest sector news.
Episode from The Event Horizon Podcast. Summarised by the AffHouse newsroom from the full episode. How we work →
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Headline volume figures from Kalshi and Polymarket are quoted everywhere, but what drives them matters more than the totals. On The Event Horizon, host Dustin Gouker walks through September data with Eric Ramsey of TickerTracker, after a news segment with Daniel O'Boyle of InGame on prediction-market valuations.
In this episode
Ramsey says Kalshi crossed $3 billion in single-day volume three times this season, with September volume over $60 billion (34:39, 34:51).
Straight football moneyline markets are "dead flat" on last year; spreads, totals and player props are up about 100% (36:43, 36:56).
More than 60% of Kalshi volume is now parlays, and the median parlay on the first football weekend had 11 legs (37:22, 40:27).
Tennis was about 2.4 times bigger than football on Kalshi in September, with Challenger and ITF matches around 60% of tennis volume (45:36, 45:58).
The 15-minute Bitcoin market was 11% of Kalshi's volume, and elections only 2% (47:42, 52:37).
Kalshi's share of US-facing prediction-market volume has slipped from 85-90% to roughly 70-75%, with Polymarket US a clear number two (53:07, 54:07).
Episode from The Event Horizon Podcast by Dustin Gouker, published on YouTube.
