Trading on the past: disputed-fact markets, with Verifact CEO Rodrigo Aquino

Most prediction markets price what happens next; Verifact Markets prices what already happened. For affiliates and operators, it is an early test of how far event contracts can stretch beyond sports and elections. Host Dustin Gouker talks to Verifact CEO Rodrigo Aquino, then covers the week's legal news with Daniel O'Boyle of InGame.

In this episode

• Aquino says Verifact asks "what actually happened" and resolves markets on evidence from both sides, with "no spin, no agenda" (34:03, 34:14).

• It started with 20 markets, including whether COVID-19 originated in a lab, and has market makers from day one (41:05, 41:20, 41:56).

• Users can already submit evidence, but Verifact is being "very conservative" about admitting it, and a reward programme is planned (46:12, 46:33).

• It runs on a blockchain using USDC and is not rolling out in the US for now, so Gouker, in Oregon, cannot access it (47:04, 47:35, 48:11).

• If a market gets no evidence, it expires and users are paid out based on executed prices and qualifying trades (57:30, 57:42).

• In the news roundup, the NFL filed a Supreme Court brief that Gouker says puts it on New Jersey's side, and the Seminole Tribe sued DraftKings (5:01, 5:14, 16:43).

Episode from The Event Horizon Podcast by Dustin Gouker, published on YouTube.