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Prediction markets vs sportsbooks, live at BetBash 2026 with Pads of Bookie Beats
Recorded in Las Vegas, professional bettor Pads of Bookie Beats discusses live betting, liquidity and how prediction markets are changing sports betting.
Episode from Inside Prediction Markets. Summarised by the AffHouse newsroom from the full episode. How we work →
Aired Published Updated
Professional bettors show operators what sharp players value. Recorded in front of a live audience at BetBash in Las Vegas, the Inside Prediction Markets podcast hosts Pads, a chemical engineer turned full-time live bettor and part-time Discord moderator at Bookie Beats, to talk liquidity, market making and exchanges.
In this episode
Pads worked as a chemical engineer for 10 years before PASPA was repealed, found Bookie Beats in 2021 and has bet professionally for four years (0:27, 0:45, 1:26).
Bookie Beats is B2C for now and aims for maybe 500 to 1,000 members; he says the community is about a third of the company's value (3:06, 3:51, 4:35).
His maker volume is higher by 60 to 70% but its ROI is tiny; pregame making competes for 3 to 4% ROI, while live taking spots can hit 400 to 500% and bring most of the raw profit (12:28, 12:36, 12:48).
He doesn't think Kalshi cares when he takes 70 grand off SIG: if maker ROI drops from 3% to 2.8%, the exchange still earns fees from recreational flow (14:05, 14:14).
He wants prediction markets to end at 99.9 cents rather than 99, since a recreational bettor cashing out at 99 pays a 1% fee (23:12, 23:24).
A prediction-market exchange representative on stage says its live trading team will quote about 50k per side at NFL stoppages, and its timer is already gone (54:51, 55:38).
Episode from Inside Prediction Markets, published on YouTube.
