From a $100 sportsbook bankroll to pro prediction market trader, with evenstevengg

Prediction market trader evenstevengg got into sports betting in 2022 by putting $100 into a sportsbook and, after +EV betting, arbitrage and live betting, now does most of his trading as a market maker. On Inside Prediction Markets he explains the switch, what he thinks of offshore books and what a rain-delayed NASCAR market cost him.

In this episode

• He says he put $100 into MGM in 2022 and won $1,000 overnight, which started his sports betting journey (0:35).

• His mix flipped from about 95% taking in January to roughly 20% taking and 80% making, mostly RFQs on combos plus small niche markets such as NASCAR (3:51).

• Taking still earns more this year: he puts his taking P&L at about 7-8% ROI against 2-3% for making (6:52).

• RFQ felt easy during the World Cup but became "super competitive" afterwards; he expects pricing his own numbers, rather than following market averages, to become important in the next three to four months (8:32, 22:45).

• He has not placed a bet on a recreational sportsbook in about two months, sees "the slow death of offshore books" and calls himself "full on PM" (9:37, 11:51, 15:57).

• His most expensive mistake: a NASCAR pole position market that resolved to fair value after qualifying was rained out; he says he did not read it well and lost about $35k (37:54).

Episode from Inside Prediction Markets, published on YouTube.