Prediction markets face their biggest legal test yet, with attorney Alex Dubin

The Ninth Circuit has ruled against Kalshi, setting up a clash with the Third Circuit and a likely trip to the Supreme Court. Attorney Alex Dubin, whose practice focuses on professional bettors, market makers and futures traders, walks the Inside Prediction Markets hosts through what the ruling means.

In this episode

• Dubin says the Ninth Circuit went out of its way to disagree with the Third Circuit's 2-1 April ruling for Kalshi, calling that a plain-text reading and arguing for a more contextual one (8:07, 8:52, 9:25).

• The circuits now split: the Third came down 2-1 for Kalshi, the Ninth 3-0 for the states, and New Jersey had until September 3 to petition for certiorari (17:04, 17:22).

• Both rulings were on temporary injunctions, so the court may wait for the Sixth Circuit's ruling on the merits (18:28, 18:51).

• The Ninth Circuit decision lets state attorneys general in its circuit, including California, order Kalshi to cease and desist (22:28, 22:34).

• Dubin warns of a slippery-slope risk: if wagering on an unknown outcome defines gambling, the stock market and the CME would qualify too (31:07, 32:02, 32:21).

• The Supreme Court could hear arguments this year, or the case could take over a year; the two bills in Congress are stuck in committee (36:45, 36:50, 43:02).

Episode from Inside Prediction Markets, published on YouTube.