- Podcast
The Maduro insider trading case and how sharps actually win, with Shipper
The hosts unpack the DOJ case against a soldier who traded on classified intelligence, then former bookmaker Shipper explains how sharps approach prediction markets.
Episode from Inside Prediction Markets. Summarised by the AffHouse newsroom from the full episode. How we work →
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This Inside Prediction Markets episode opens with a federal insider-trading prosecution over a $400,000 Polymarket bet on the Maduro news. It then turns to Shipper, a sharp bettor who spent about six years in bookmaking, on how sharps use prediction markets.
In this episode
A host says the DOJ prosecuted the bettor, "a big moment" for prosecuting material non-public information on prediction markets; another stresses it happened on Polymarket International, which the CFTC does not regulate, yet he is still liable for leaking national security information (0:17).
A host says Polymarket is lobbying the CFTC to bring its international exchange back to the US, though, in that host's view, that version lacks the KYC the CFTC expects (2:32).
Shipper came from New Zealand via Australia, worked in bookmaking for about six years and went full-time pro at the start of 2023 (6:54).
On an off-market NBA read that Denver would rest players against Oklahoma City, he says he took out an entire strike on Kalshi, the market rebuilt and early liquidity is "absolutely insane" (11:31).
He expects prediction markets to be "somewhere between 5 and 10" percent of his overall P&L for 2026 (45:21).
His most expensive lesson is losing an account; withdrawing at the wrong time was "the stupidest mistake" (48:46).
Episode from Inside Prediction Markets, published on YouTube.