Kalshi vs Polymarket: how prediction markets scaled
Kalshi went from a $2 billion to a $40 billion valuation in 16 months; Polymarket took ICE money and reportedly bought its way back into the US. Both now face state lawsuits.
The wire: what moved in affiliate today
Regulation, payouts, platform policy and the numbers behind them — written by the desk, filed the same day.
What are prediction markets? How they work vs sports betting
Prediction markets trade $1 yes/no contracts on future events. How prices, fees and settlement work, how they differ from a sportsbook, and where US law stands.
- Interview
Prediction markets, league coverage and official data, with SportsDataIO's Zach Dziura
SportsDataIO's Zach Dziura on why more league coverage is better even when top leagues cover most demand, how independent feeds differ from official data, and what prediction markets need.
- Podcast
Trading on the past: disputed-fact markets, with Verifact CEO Rodrigo Aquino
Verifact CEO Rodrigo Aquino explains a prediction market built to settle disputed facts rather than future events, plus a roundup of the week's sector news.
- Podcast
What prediction market volume data really shows, with TickerTracker's Eric Ramsey
Eric Ramsey of TickerTracker unpacks trading-volume numbers at Kalshi, Polymarket and others as football season drives activity, plus the latest sector news.
- Podcast
The future of prediction markets, with Public co-CEO Leif Abraham
Public.com co-founder Leif Abraham explains the brokerage's prediction-market launch via Kalshi, including AI agents that can trade events for members.
- Podcast
Prediction markets and hedging, with Herisson co-founder Will Brooke
Herisson co-founder Will Brooke discusses using prediction markets for hedging and insurance against event-driven risk, plus a roundup of sector news.
- Podcast
Beyond prediction markets: the US gambling issues that matter, with Dustin Gouker
Journalist Dustin Gouker joins Eric Raskin to unpack G2E takeaways, trading-card pack ripping, online casino prospects for 2027 and the CFTC line on casino games.
- Podcast
Facebook Forecast: the inside story of Meta's first prediction market, with Rebecca Kossnick
Rebecca Kossnick explains how Meta built Facebook Forecast, a points-based prediction market launched in 2020, why it closed and what today's builders can learn from it.
- Podcast
The gamblification of collectibles, with journalist Nick Devor
Journalist Nick Devor explains how pack-opening in Pokemon and sports cards borrows gambling mechanics, and what that means for regulators and the betting industry.
- Podcast
G2E 2026: the gaming industry unites against prediction markets, with Jill Dorson
Journalist Jill Dorson reports from G2E 2026 on the industry's front against prediction markets, the court fights and Kevin Costner's planned gambling summit.
- Podcast
Building an "Expedia for sports betting", with Gino Donati of BetOpenly and OpenMarkets
BetOpenly founder Gino Donati on his peer-to-peer exchange, the new OpenMarkets price-comparison layer, a universal wallet and his first outside fundraise.
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